International exams like PISA and TIMSS examine the academic achievement of students and according to many they contain clues regarding the future human capital of each country. If such is the case, success on these exams may well predict a country’s future economic growth, which is one of the reasons that such great importance is attached to the results of these exams in discussions of education policy in many countries, including Israel. Does this claim really hold, though? And if so, what level of validity and credibility can we attach to these predictions? Taub Center researchers Nachum Blass, Michael Debowy, and Prof. Alex Weinreb looked at these questions and found that, if there is a correlation, it is extremely weak and quite limited. The study found that there is no evidence that improving exam scores improves the predictions of a number of models for economic growth given past data on these variables.
The researchers found that even if a positive relation of some sort was found between achievements and future economic results, the correlation between past economic variables and exam achievements was strong and significant. In other words, economic factors past and current of a country predict measures of student success on international exams much better than exam achievements predict future economic growth.
Study findings cast doubt on the relationship between success on international exams and future economic prosperity
The study focused on achievement scores in mathematics, science, and reading on international exams from 1999–2003 and their relationship to economic growth variables from 2010–2019, as well as their relationship to the same growth indicators from 1980–1999. The analysis shows that growth at the end of the 20th century explains both the achievements on the exams and the growth between 2010 and 2019. Essentially, the exam scores reflect the past economy of the country and do not predict its future.
After examining dozens of models, the study found that scores contribute almost nothing to predicting the rate of GDP growth. In addition, any correlation between economic development and scores diminishes with time elapsed since the exam. The only models that identified any relationship between scores and measures of future economic growth shows that the scores on tests conducted between 1999 and 2003 contributed between 0% and 14% of the variance between GDP per capita growth in 2010–2019, with an average of less than 1%, while ignoring the lack of statistical significance in the estimates. Had the research been limited to statistically significant estimates, the contribution would not have exceeded 8%. In light of this, the researchers find no support for the claim that international exams predict future economic growth of a country.
Nachum Blass, one of the study’s authors, says: “There is no doubt that human capital is an important component with a substantial impact on social and economic processes, and the knowledge that is acquired in educational institutions is an important component of that capital. We do not deny the important contribution of international exams to educational research, but we do wish to remind people that human capital is just one of the many variables that influence social and economic processes in a country. Evaluation exams are an effective tool to measure the level of acquired knowledge, but their contribution to evaluating the quality of education in a country is limited.”
The Taub Center for Social Policy Studies in Israel is an independent, non-partisan socioeconomic research institute. The Center provides decision makers and the public with research and findings on some of the most critical issues facing Israel in the areas of education, health, welfare, labor markets and economic policy in order to impact the decision-making process in Israel and to advance the well-being of all Israelis.
For details, or to arrange an interview, please contact Chen Mashiach, Spokesperson: 054-7602151 or Anat Sella-Koren, Director of Marketing, Communications and Government Relations at the Taub Center for Social Policy Studies in Israel: 050-690-9749.