The Covid-19 pandemic halted the upward trend in life expectancy that has prevailed over the last three decades. Instead of an annual increase of two to three months per year, Israel experienced a drop of about 1.5 months in life expectancy in 2020. Today, roughly two years after the first Covid death in Israel, the Taub Center is publishing an article by Prof. Alex Weinreb with estimates of life expectancy in Israel in 2021. The main finding is that there was no additional decline in life expectancy in Israel during 2021 despite an increase of 73% in the number of Covid deaths.
At the beginning of the first wave of infection, there was a concern that the Covid-19 pandemic would indirectly increase mortality, partly because of a shift of attention away from other medical issues, particularly among the elderly. “The findings of the study indicate that this concern, which we expressed at the beginning of the first wave of infection, was fortunately not realized,” according to Prof. Weinreb. Moreover, he adds, “the findings of the study are surprising and indicate that the healthcare system is continuing to cope with the other chronic diseases that are responsible for most of the mortality in the 75+ age group. Essentially, this is an indication that the healthcare system is successfully dealing with the challenges of the Covid pandemic.” Two years after the onset of the pandemic in Israel, Prof. Weinreb’s study calculates the pandemic’s effect on life expectancy in 2021. It is a follow-up to the study Excess Mortality and Life Expectancy in Israel in 2020, which was published in March 2021.
The mortality rates from the variants of 2021 were higher in younger age groups
In 2021, mortality rates were 5%–8% higher in the 20–44 age group and 6.6% higher in the 65–74 age group relative to 2017–2019. These increases deviated from the changes in mortality rates in those age groups during 2020 (a decline of about 10% and 2.5% in the 25–29 and 35–44 age groups, respectively, and an increase of about 2% in most other age groups). They reflect the large increase in the number of Covid infections among younger age groups during the spread of the variants in 2021 (the British, Delta, and Omicron variants). In contrast, the mortality rates in the oldest age group, i.e., 75+, which in 2020 were higher by 1.8% than in 2017–2019, were lower by 1.2% in 2021 than in 2017–2019. This change in mortality rates among the elderly, the age group in which most mortality is concentrated, has a decisive effect in determining the direction that changes in life expectancy take.
The effect of the pandemic on life expectancy in Israel in 2021 was less than expected
In 2021, life expectancy among men was lower by 1.3 months (41 days) than in 2017–2019, prior to the onset of the pandemic, and was similar to that in 2020. In contrast, among women it was lower by 0.6 months (19 days) than in 2017–2019, an addition of 28 days to life expectancy relative to 2020. The main reason that a further decline in life expectancy was avoided in 2021, despite a 73% increase in the number of deaths from Covid, is the decline in mortality rates in the 75+ age group. In other words, in the population as a whole, the decline in mortality for reasons unrelated to Covid compensated for the rise in the number of deaths from Covid.
The probability of survival rose in the 75+ age group, but there was somewhat of a decline among those aged 20–75
The study presents a surprising picture of an increase in the likelihood of survival among the elderly in 2021. Given the age-specific mortality rates in 2021, 33.2% of the men aged 75 will survive until 90, as opposed to 32.8% according to the mortality rates of 2017–2019 and 31.9% according to those of 2020. Among elderly women, there was a parallel improvement: an increase of 0.4 percentage points relative to 2017–2019 and 1.3 percentage points relative to 2020.
Based on the new findings, Prof. Avi Weiss, the President of the Taub Center, praised the healthcare system in Israel, which had “succeeded in coping with numerous and difficult problems that not only halted the decline in life expectancy in Israel, but in 2021 even returned it to an upward trend relative to the previous year, and in particular succeeded in protecting the elderly population. Nonetheless, the damage done by Covid should not be underestimated. Instead of an increase of about two to three months per year in life expectancy, we saw a slight drop of one month on average during the two years of the pandemic. It is currently expected that the reversal in trend will return us to the previous trajectory.”
The Taub Center for Social Policy Studies in Israel is an independent, non-partisan socioeconomic research institute. The Center provides decision makers and the public with research and findings on some of the most critical issues facing Israel in the areas of education, health, welfare, labor markets and economic policy in order to impact the decision-making process in Israel and to advance the well-being of all Israelis.
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