Israel’s Demography 2023: Declining Fertility, Migration, and Mortality

Professor Alex Weinreb, Head of the Demography Area and Research Director at the Taub Center, reviews the changes in the three main components affecting population growth —fertility, mortality, and migration. In addition, he presents two issues related to fertility in Israel: the increase in birth rates among unmarried women and the consistent rise in fertility treatments.

Fertility

Research shows that during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a slight increase in fertility rates in Israel, but by 2022, they returned to the declining trend that began in 2018. The decline in fertility is evident among Jews, Arabs, and Others, but the fertility level among the largest religiously observant populations —Jews and Muslims — remains relatively high.

From 2018 to 2022, the fertility rate among Jewish women dropped from 3.17 to 3.03 children per woman. Among Muslim and Christian women, the decline was sharper — from 3.20 to 2.91 children per Muslim woman and from 2.06 to 1.68 children per Christian woman. The fertility rate among Druze women dropped from 2.16 to 1.85 children per woman.

The declining trend in fertility observed until 2022 intensified in the early months of 2023, and between March and September, the rate was much lower than in the corresponding period of previous years. In the first nine months of 2023, the fertility level of Jewish women was 3.6% lower compared to the corresponding period in 2022, and for Arab women, it was 3.1% lower.

Mortality

Aside from the usual seasonal fluctuations in mortality, which tend to peak in January and February and reach the lowest points during the summer months, the COVID-19 pandemic had a profound impact on mortality rates in 2021 and 2022. In the first two months of 2021, Israel was in the midst of a rapid vaccination campaign that led to a sharp decline in the number of deaths. However, from August to October, there was a large mortality wave. In January and February 2022, mortality was particularly high due to the Omicron variant, but for the remainder of the year, it was relatively normal. This trend of returning to a more standard seasonal mortality pattern continued into 2023. In fact, by the end of September 2023, Israel was on track for the lowest-ever crude mortality rate, fewer than 5 deaths per 1,000 people. This figure indicates that life expectancy in Israel is returning to the upward trend that characterized the pre-COVID period. It remains to be seen whether the number of deaths in the ongoing war will delay this, and for how long.

Migration

The sharp increase in the number of migrants from Russia and Ukraine since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 has increased the impact of migration on Israel’s population growth. The net migration to Israel in 2022 was 2.5 times higher than the average net migration in the five years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, 39% of Israel’s population growth in 2022 was due to net migration — double the usual rate.

The total number of migrants to Israel in the first half of 2023 was similar to that in 2022, as was their age structure. The common age range of migrants in 2023 is between 30 and 44. Professor Weinreb emphasizes that this figure points to the ongoing challenge of integrating migrants into Israel, as older migrants find it harder to integrate into the labor market due to their skills compared to younger migrants.

A significant difference between the migrants of 2022 and those of 2023 is the lower proportion of children and elderly in 2023. This means that the migration wave of 2023 will cost Israel much less as fewer migrants are of school age or at an age where they frequently use public health services.

The war on October 7 likely reduced the number of migrants to Israel in the last months of the year to much lower levels. The most recent available data shows that the rate of incoming migration dropped significantly in October. If the data for November and December indicate a similar trend, the total number of migrants to Israel in 2023 will drop to its 2018–2019 level, around 35,000 migrants.

Population growth

In 2022, the Jewish and Christian populations grew by 1.7% and 1.3% (respectively), the Druze population grew by 1.1%, while the Muslim population grew by double that rate — 2.2%. Net migration accounted for about 25% of the Jewish population growth — much higher than its share in population growth in 2021 (16%).

In the Muslim population, where the overall growth rate remains the highest despite the decline in fertility, net migration accounted for only 7% of the population growth. Among the Druze, migration did not contribute at all to growth: the only source of growth is natural increase. Among Christians, whose natural growth rate remains the lowest among all religious groups in Israel, mainly due to their prior decline in fertility, the overall population growth rate remained relatively high due to net migration (66% of the growth in 2022).

Among the “Others” group — a population not classified by religion — both the extent of demographic growth and its source are entirely different. From 2015 to 2019, the annual growth rate in this group rose from 3.9% to 5.7%. This growth made the Others the fastest-growing population in Israel, even more than the Haredi population. In 2022, the Others population jumped by 11.2%, 48,000 people in absolute terms. Given these numbers, it is not surprising that in most years, between 75% to 90% of the growth in this population came from net migration. In 2022, net migration accounted for 97% of the growth of this group.

Births to never-married women and IVF births

An interesting phenomenon regarding fertility is the continuous rise in the birth rate among never-married Jewish women. Between 2012 and 2022, their share of total births in Israel was 8.5%. This rate is very low compared to women in Europe or North America, where rates have been rising for years. This phenomenon likely occurs mainly within the secular Jewish population, as it can be assumed that the birth rates among unmarried Haredi and religious Jewish women, and Muslim unmarried women are close to 0%.

Another noteworthy phenomenon is the consistent increase in fertility treatments in Israel. Today, there are 26 Ministry of Health-approved centers for in-vitro fertilization (IVF) in Israel, and the number of births resulting from such treatments has steadily increased. The rate of live births from IVF grew from 3.3% of all live births in the country in 2005 to 5% in 2019.