International exams like PISA and TIMSS examine the academic achievement of students, and, according to many, they contain clues regarding the future human capital of each country. If such is the case, success on these exams may well predict a country’s future economic growth, which is one of the reasons that such great importance is attached to the results of these exams in discussions of education policy in many countries, including Israel.
Taub Center researchers Nachum Blass, Michael Debowy, and Prof. Alex Weinreb looked at the contribution of exam scores to improving predictions of models of economic growth. The study focused on achievement scores in mathematics, science, and reading on international exams from 1999–2003 and their relationship to economic growth variables from 2010–2019, as well as their relationship to the same growth indicators from 1980–1999.
After examining dozens of models, the researchers found that scores contribute very little to predictions of the rate of GDP growth. In addition, any correlation between economic development and scores diminishes with time elapsed since the exam. The only models that identified any relationship between scores and measures of future economic growth showed that the scores on tests conducted between 1999 and 2003 contributed between 0% and 14% of the variance between GDP per capita growth in 2010–2019, with an average of less than 1%, while ignoring the lack of statistical significance in the estimates. Had the research been limited to statistically significant estimates, the contribution would not have exceeded 8%. In light of this, the researchers find no support for the claim that international exams predict future economic growth of a country.
The analysis shows that growth at the end of the 20th century explains both the achievements on the exams and the growth between 2010 and 2019. Essentially, the exam scores reflect the past economy of the country and do not predict its future. In other words, the past and present economics of a country predict the academic achievements of students on international exams better than student achievements are able to predict a country’s economic success.
The study findings led the researchers to conclude that the ability of international exams to predict a country’s and society’s future economic growth are seriously limited.