In recent years, family structure in Israel has undergone substantial changes, including a decrease in birth rates, a decline in the marriage rate, and an increase in the average age of marriage across all sectors of society. Although the marriage rate in Israel is similar to that in other high-income countries, Israel is more similar to neighboring developing countries in terms of birthrate than to high-income ones. This uniqueness affects both Israel’s demographics and its future economy, as well as the diversity of its population groups.
A new study by the Taub Center examines the connection between the decisions of Israelis regarding parenthood and marriage and the status of those around them. The study, conducted by Michael Debowy, Prof. Gil S. Epstein, and Prof. Avi Weiss, provides a tool for improving demographic forecasts at the national and local levels and for urban planning that is better tailored to future family structures in local authorities.
The researchers focused on two social networks that might influence individuals in Israel: their geographical subdistrict, which roughly represents the individual’s neighbors and those physically close to him; and their ethnicity-religiosity group, which roughly represents those who are culturally similar to him. For the purposes of this study, researchers used data from the Household Expenditure and Income Survey conducted by the Central Bureau of Statistics between 2018 and 2020.
The sociocultural network is more strongly related with the likelihood of getting married and with the number of children than the spatial network
The study’s findings indicate that the greater the proportion of married couples in the individual’s spatial or sociocultural network, the greater the likelihood that the individual will be married. Thus, an increase of one percent in the rate of married individuals in both the sociocultural and spatial network is associated with an increase in the individual’s probability of marriage by 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively.
Environmental norms also affect the number of children in a family. Each additional child in the average family in both the sociocultural and spatial network increases an individual’s expected number of children by 0.90 and 0.25, respectively. In this case, the correlation of individuals with their sociocultural network is much greater than that with their spatial network — three and a half time greater.
Differences between population groups
The researchers found that, in general, there is variation in the relative weight of local and national cultural norms across different population groups. In particular, Arabs are more aligned with their local neighbors than are Jews.
With respect to fertility, the study’s findings show that Arabs are more sensitive to the spatial network and less to the sociocultural network than are Jews and Others. In addition, non-Haredi Jews and Others are on average less sensitive to the sociocultural network than are Haredi Jews. It is interesting to note that the family size of individuals belonging to the Haredi or Arab sector — sometimes perceived as more insular, even in mixed cities — is aligned with that of their neighbors no less than the family size of non-Haredi Jews is. With regard to marriage, it appears that among non-Haredi Jews, the alignment with the spatial network is similar to that with the sociocultural network, while among Haredi Jews, there is no alignment with the spatial network whatsoever.
More education means more marriages, but not necessarily more children
The study also examined the contribution of other variables, such as education and employment, to the likelihood of marriage and to predicting the number of children. The researchers found that when controlling for normative connections (the sociocultural and spatial networks), education maintains its predictive power for marriages but loses some of its importance in predicting the number of children. In contrast, employment predicts parenthood and marriages with statistical significance when normative relations are considered.