Viral Economics – Latest Coronavirus Trends

29.05.2020

page-01 (1)1) For the first ten days after the intensive closures of offices and restaurants began on March 15, the daily increase in the number of confirmed cases was relatively stable, usually in the 25-30% range (thick orange line).  In the last week, the pace of growth has slowed significantly, remaining below 15% in 5 of the last 6 days.

Confirmed coronavirus cases in Israel

2) Coronavirus testing has increased dramatically over the last few weeks (the green line).  Until March 26, that increase was associated with a rising percentage of positive tests (the grey line). Since then, the percentage of positive tests has fallen. This emerging gap between the two lines is important because it suggests that the reduction in rate of infection seen in the last graph is occurring in spite of a continued rise in testing.

Number of tests and percent positive

3) Here we see overall trends in the number of active cases, recoveries, and deaths. Note that the ratio of recoveries to deaths is around 10:1. That is significantly higher than the equivalent ratio in most other OECD countries.

General results

4) Another way to look at the trajectory of the epidemic is to estimate the ratio of new confirmed cases to new confirmed recoveries. During the 20s of March there was a rapid expansion in confirmed cases—in part due to the rapid rise in testing. At the same time, the epidemic was still young, so not many confirmed cases were officially reaching a stage of recovery.  That led to ratios of around 50 new cases for every recovery.  Over the last few days, this ratio has dropped significantly. It is now around 15, which is still too high. But it is pointing in the right direction.

5) A more worrying sign of looming mortality from coronavirus can be seen in the relationship between the number of people currently on respirators (the blue line), and the number of deaths (the red bloc). Here we see that the rise in the latter appears to mirror the former, with a lag of between a week and 10 days. That’s worrying because the blue line is continuing to rise.

trends in respirator and number of deaths

 

Recent Posts

Meet Jim Angell, the Taub Center’s New Chair of the Board

28.07.2021

With expertise and passion for environmental conservation, Jim Angell has years of experience supporting efforts to protect global landscapes and

Read more >
  • Taub Center Staff

The Education Ministry Tango: Reducing Learning and Social Gaps through Affirmative Action

06.03.2016

My lecture’s odd name derives from the great similarity between Israeli government policy on learning and social gaps – “two

Read more >
  • Nachum Blass

Initial thoughts on the discussion about reforming secondary education in Israel

04.07.2021

At first glance, it appears that in the interview in TheMarker (June 27th, 2021) given by Ran Erez, the Chairman

Read more >
  • Nachum Blass

The COVID-19 crisis and its impact on the education system: First impressions

10.05.2021

Prof. Andreas Schleicher is the Director for Education and Skills and Special Adviser on Education Policy to the Secretary General

Read more >
  • Taub Center Staff