Pisa Predictive Power of Future Educational Attainments: A Longitudinal Study

This study shows that performance on international PISA exams is a strong predictor of later educational success. At the same time, the study finds that many students who scored poorly on PISA nonetheless earned a Bagrut (matriculation) certificate, and some even pursued higher education and completed an academic degree. The research by Nachum Blass, Prof. Zemira Mevarech, Dr. David Maagan, and Dr. Joel Rapp presents unique — and in some cases surprising — findings on the long-term outcomes of Israeli students over a period of 14 years.

PISA scores are strong predictors of future academic achievement, especially Bagrut and psychometric outcomes

The study examined the link between the performance of students who took the 2009 PISA exam at age 15 and their later educational outcomes — in high school, on the psychometric exam, and in higher education up to age 29. The findings indicate a strong connection between reading literacy levels on PISA and later academic achievements — for example, Bagrut scores and eligibility, the likelihood of taking the psychometric exam and the score obtained, and enrollment in higher education and completion of a first degree.

Even low-scoring PISA students succeeded in entering higher education

The study also presents findings that challenge the assumption that PISA has unequivocal predictive power regarding future academic ability. For example, about half of the students in Reading Level 1 earned a Bagrut certificate, 25% began higher education studies, and 16% completed a first degree. Even at the lowest reading level (Level 0), 28% of students earned a Bagrut certificate, 10% began higher education studies, and 5% completed a first degree.

The strongest predictor of future outcomes: students’ socioeconomic background

Students’ socioeconomic background is the most influential factor in predicting future academic outcomes: at every reading level, students from higher socioeconomic backgrounds achieved better Bagrut results, were more likely to take the psychometric exam and received higher scores, and entered higher education at substantially higher rates. At the same time, the study shows that a considerable share of students from weaker socioeconomic backgrounds nonetheless earned a Bagrut certificate, pursued higher education, and even completed a degree.

Gender patterns also emerge: girls score higher in reading literacy and are more likely to take the psychometric exam, while boys receive higher psychometric scores and tend to choose fields of study associated with higher future earning potential.

Distribution of students according to PRP levels, by gender, sector, and SES group

Suggestions for further research

The researchers suggest expanding the study to examine the extent to which reading skills — or skills in other subjects such as mathematics or science — predict future outcomes in other areas, such as employment and wages. It would also be possible to examine the impact of additional skills, such as problem solving and creative thinking, on future outcomes — both in education and in employment.