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A new Taub Center study shows that performance on international PISA exams is a strong predictor of later educational success. At the same time, the study finds that many students who scored poorly on PISA nonetheless earned a Bagrut (matriculation) certificate, and some even pursued higher education and completed an academic degree. The research by Nachum Blass, Prof. Zemira Mevarech, Dr. David Maagan, and Dr. Joel Rapp presents unique — and in some cases surprising — findings on the long-term outcomes of Israeli students over a period of 14 years.
PISA scores are strong predictors of future academic achievement, especially Bagrut and psychometric outcomes
The study examined the link between the performance of students who took the 2009 PISA exam at age 15 and their later educational outcomes — in high school, on the psychometric exam, and in higher education up to age 29. The findings indicate a strong connection between reading literacy levels on PISA and later academic achievements — for example, Bagrut scores and eligibility, the likelihood of taking the psychometric exam and the score obtained, and enrollment in higher education and completion of a first degree.
Even low-scoring PISA students succeeded in entering higher education
The study also presents findings that challenge the assumption that PISA has unequivocal predictive power regarding future academic ability. For example, about half of the students in Reading Level 1 earned a Bagrut certificate, 25% began higher education studies, and 16% completed a first degree. Even at the lowest reading level (Level 0), 28% of students earned a Bagrut certificate, 10% began higher education studies, and 5% completed a first degree.
The strongest predictor of future outcomes: students’ socioeconomic background
Students’ socioeconomic background is the most influential factor in predicting future academic outcomes: at every reading level, students from higher socioeconomic backgrounds achieved better Bagrut results, were more likely to take the psychometric exam and received higher scores, and entered higher education at substantially higher rates. At the same time, the study shows that a considerable share of students from weaker socioeconomic backgrounds nonetheless earned a Bagrut certificate, pursued higher education, and even completed a degree.
Gender patterns also emerge: girls score higher in reading literacy and are more likely to take the psychometric exam, while boys receive higher psychometric scores and tend to choose fields of study associated with higher future earning potential.
Distribution of students according to PRP levels, by gender, sector, and SES group
Suggestions for further research
The researchers suggest expanding the study to examine the extent to which reading skills — or skills in other subjects such as mathematics or science — predict future outcomes in other areas, such as employment and wages. It would also be possible to examine the impact of additional skills, such as problem solving and creative thinking, on future outcomes — both in education and in employment.
Prof. Zemira Mevarech, Israel Prize laureate in education research, says: “Our findings point to a strong link between students’ reading levels as measured in the PISA exams at ages 15–16 and their later academic outcomes, similar to what has been found in studies conducted in other countries. At the same time, it is important to note that a non-negligible share of students whose PISA reading levels were low nevertheless did quite well on the Bagrut exams and even completed a first degree at institutions of higher education.”
The Taub Center for Social Policy Studies in Israel is an independent, non-partisan socioeconomic research institute. The Center provides decision makers and the public with research and findings on some of the most critical issues facing Israel in the areas of education, health, welfare, labor markets and economic policy in order to impact the decision-making process in Israel and to advance the well-being of all Israelis.
For further details or to arrange an interview, please contact Chen Mashiach, the Center Spokesperson: 054-7602151.