The number of homicides in Arab society in Israel are rising at an unprecedented rate: in 2023, there were 233 homicides compared to 109 in 2022. There has also been an increase among the Jewish population: from 38 homicides in all of 2022 to 66 last year. A new study by the Taub Center examines homicides in Israel (that are not the result of acts of terrorism) according to population group and in comparison with other countries. It found that the number of homicides in 2023 rose consistently every month in the Arab population until September, at which time there were 29 Arabs murdered. In comparison to other countries, the homicide rate in the Arab population in Israel is among the highest of the high-income countries.
In a previous study, Prof. Alex Weinreb, an expert in demography and Research Director at the Taub Center, examined the factors behind the rise in the level of violence in Arab society in Israel and warned of an ongoing deterioration in the situation. In this new study, Prof. Weinreb, Prof. Avi Weiss, Dr. Labib Shami, and Nir Kaidar, analyze recent data and trends in homicide rates in Israel among Jews and Arabs, with the goal of understanding their significance and assessing their severity in an international perspective.
The ratio of homicide rates of Arabs to that of Jews is expected to reach 13:1 this year
Between 2011 and 2023, the Jewish population grew by 25% while the Arab population grew by 30%. The rate of increase in the number of Jewish men aged 20–34 was about 10% during this period in contrast to an increase of about 46% among Arabs. Numerous studies have shown that the rates of crime, and in particular homicide, reach their peak among the young. It appears that in Israel, as well, the high rates of growth among the younger age groups has had a significant effect on homicide rates. Between 2011 and 2022, there was a consistent decline in the number of homicides among Jews — about 60% cumulatively. In contrast, among Arabs there has been an upward trend since 2016.
“The large increase in the number of homicides in Arab society since 2018, some 2.8 times in the rate per capita, is very concerning,” says Prof. Weinreb. “It is important to say that this is not predestined. In 2022, we saw a substantial lowering in the number of homicides. Although we are not able to cite a single cause for this, we can surmise that it is related to changes in policy and treatment of violence in Arab society in that year.”
The Taub Center’s research found that differences in homicide rates between Jews and Arabs have implications for the patterns of inequality in violence-related mortality. Up until 2015, the ratio of homicides among Arabs to homicides among Jews in Israel stood at 4:1; in 2023, it reached 13:1. For the sake of comparison, in the US, where the homicide rate is particularly high for a high-income country, the ratio of homicides between Blacks and Whites was 8:1 in 2019. In other words, the difference in homicide rates between Jews and Arabs in Israel in 2023 is about 60% than that between Blacks and Whites in the US.
The rate of homicides among Israeli Arabs is particularly high relative to other countries
The study by the Taub Center compared Israel to 32 OECD countries for which there are data on age profiles and homicide rates for 2019 (the last year for which data have been published). In that year, Israel was ranked tenth with respect to homicides per 100,000 population (1.6 as opposed to 3.04 in 2023). In a breakdown by population group, the homicide rate was 4.9 per 100,000 population among Arabs as compared to 0.67 among Jews. These rates placed the Arabs in Israel in fifth place from the top and the Jews in fifth place from the bottom. In an examination of homicide rates per 100,000 population among the 20–34 age group, Arabs were in sixth place from the top while Jews were in fourth place from the bottom.
“If we compare the OECD data to the Israeli data for 2023, on the assumption that murder rates in other countries don’t change, the picture is particularly bleak,” says Prof. Weinreb. “In such a comparison, Arabs in Israel climb to third place in number of homicides, behind only Mexico and Colombia, while Jews’ ranking climbed but remained lower than the average in the other high-income countries.”
Overall, Arabs in Israel are exposed to a far higher risk of being murdered than Jews. The increase in the population, and in particularly in the 20–34 age group, explains part of the increase in homicides among Arabs; however, the overall rate of homicides is also continuing to rise — 2.8-fold between 2018 and 2023.
In coming years, a significant slowdown is expected in the rate of increase among Arabs aged 20–34, alongside an acceleration in that age group among Jews. The relatively rapid increase in the number of homicides among Jews in 2023 may indicate a shift from the long-term downward trend that characterized previous years. This makes sense sociologically; cultures of violence tend to spread and to become entrenched, as has happened among the Arab population in recent years, and violence tends to rise during periods of instability in the country, as we have seen in recent years in Israel. This instability is manifested in a weakening of traditional authority, in high levels of inequality, and in the social, economic, and political challenges that feed the increase in rates of violence and homicide. According to the study authors, it is possible to put an end to the cycle of violence and even change the trend — whether by taking steps like those taken in 2021‒2022 or by taking others.
The Taub Center for Social Policy Studies in Israel is an independent, non-partisan socioeconomic research institute. The Center provides decision makers and the public with research and findings on some of the most critical issues facing Israel in the areas of education, health, welfare, labor markets and economic policy in order to impact the decision-making process in Israel and to advance the well-being of all Israelis.
For details, or to arrange an interview, please contact Chen Mashiach, Spokesperson: 054-7602151.