Independence Day 2022: How right we were in our population growth rate forecasts

05.05.2022


In honor of Yom Haatzmaut, the CBS just published the latest population estimates for Israel. Anyone hoping to see high population growth continue will be gratified. Even with the substantial increase in Covid deaths over the last year, Israel’s population grew by 1.9%. That is a slightly higher rate of growth than Israel experienced in 2020. One of the main reasons for this higher growth, as we discussed in December 2021, was the mild increase in the fertility rates of Jewish women during 2021 (Table 2 in SNR 2021 Demography overview chapter).

The CBS figures also confirm the validity of the Taub Center’s own population projections. Using Israel’s 2017 population as a baseline (8.725 million), we estimated that by 30.6.2022, there will be 9.560 million people in Israel. The CBS says the current population (1.5.22) is 9.506 million. That means that by 30.6—the same reference point must be used—Israel’s population should reach around 9.538 million. In other words, the CBS estimates are that Israel’s population will have grown by around 813,000 people in the five-year period between 30.6.2017 and 30.6.2022.  We projected it would grow by 835,000 people.

This difference of 22,000 people (around 2.7%) is pretty small.  However, we can make it even smaller since our projections predated the Covid pandemic. If we reduce that 22,000 person difference by around 11,000 Covid deaths (10,700 up to now, another ~300 by 30.6) and by the 12,000 people who did not migrate here in 2020 [see Figure 4 in SNR 2021 Demography overview chapter], our projections are as close to the bullseye as we could possibly be. The difference is only around 1,000 people, or 0.1%. At the danger of wagging our own tails, that’s pretty darn good.

Recent Posts

Dilemmas and Developments in Early Childhood Care in Israel

30.06.2022

You are invited to  the Taub Center's Initiative on Early Childhood Development and Inequality conference on Dilemmas and Developments in

Meet Jim Angell, the Taub Center’s New Chair of the Board

28.07.2021

With expertise and passion for environmental conservation, Jim Angell has years of experience supporting efforts to protect global landscapes and

Read more >
  • Taub Center Staff

The Education Ministry Tango: Reducing Learning and Social Gaps through Affirmative Action

06.03.2016

My lecture’s odd name derives from the great similarity between Israeli government policy on learning and social gaps – “two

Read more >
  • Nachum Blass

Initial thoughts on the discussion about reforming secondary education in Israel

04.07.2021

At first glance, it appears that in the interview in TheMarker (June 27th, 2021) given by Ran Erez, the Chairman

Read more >
  • Nachum Blass